Rebels · SEC
Head coach Pete Golding Year 1 with Ole Miss
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Oklahoma | 92% | 0% | +92pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 6 | vs Louisville ACC · neutral | Win, 41-38 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Charlotte American Athletic | Win, 41-9 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs LSU SEC | Win, 32-24 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | at Florida SEC | Loss, 28-52 Final |
| Wk 5 | Bye | |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Vanderbilt SEC | Win, 52-17 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs Missouri SEC | Win, 31-3 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at Texas SEC | Loss, 27-34 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Auburn SEC | Win, 45-15 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | vs Georgia SEC | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at Oklahoma SEC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Wofford Non-FBS | No win prob. |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | vs Mississippi State SEC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -1.3 rating drop and a -5.2pp shift in playoff probability if Ole Miss loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
60 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+2.0 rating
31 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan MaldonadoDE From Nevada | Nevada | 177 |
| Keaton ThomasLB From Baylor | Baylor | 131 |
| Edwin JosephS From Florida State | Florida State | 122 |
| Joshua DyeRB From Southern Utah | Southern Utah | 119 |
| Johntay Cook IIWR From Syracuse | Syracuse | 105 |
| Luke FerrelliLB From California | California | 99 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
