Liberty: 2026 Week 11 recap

Liberty sits at 45th overall with a 7–1 record and a rating holding steady at 7.5. Their dominant 49–10 win over Florida International in Week 9 underscored offensive firepower, though the red-zone TD rate of 15% hints at untapped efficiency in scoring position. GIE projects 10.4 expected wins and gives them a 96% chance to win Conference USA—a commanding position. The model weights a 41% playoff probability, suggesting the ceiling exists but remains contingent on results in the final stretch. Liberty travels to New Mexico State this week facing a team they should control; how they finish will determine whether that playoff door swings wider or closes.