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Kentucky

Wildcats · SEC

GIE rank
#23
of 138 FBS
Rating
1692
2026 Week 11
Record
7-1
2026 season
Proj record
9-3
12-game season

Head coach Will Stein Year 1 with Kentucky

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
9.1
2.1 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
7 to 11
Final rank (90%)
#25 (11–41)
Make playoff
8%
Win conference
9%

Path to glory

Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)

Kentucky playoff probability by pivotal game result
Game Win Loss Swing
at Tennessee on road · Nov 7 · +25pp 25% 0% +25pp
at Missouri on road · Nov 21 · +21pp 21% 0% +21pp
vs Louisville at home · Nov 28 · +15pp 15% 0% +15pp

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Youngstown State Non-FBS Win, 45-13 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Alabama SEC Loss, 17-45 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Texas A&M SEC Win, 31-21 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs South Alabama Sun Belt Win, 45-21 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at South Carolina SEC Win, 35-34 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs LSU SEC Win, 35-34 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Oklahoma SEC Win, 21-13 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Vanderbilt SEC Win, 34-17 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Tennessee SEC Win probability: 23%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Florida SEC Win probability: 58%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Missouri SEC Win probability: 32%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Louisville ACC Win probability: 53%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Kentucky: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Kentucky sits at 44th overall after a dramatic road win at South Carolina that pushed the Wildcats to 4–1. The one-point victory in Week 5 moved nothing on GIE's rating—they remain at an 8—which tells you the model saw that outcome as…

  • Recap

    Kentucky: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Kentucky sits at 47th overall after a dominant 45–13 win over Youngstown State, though the rating holds steady at 5.2. The blowout margin masks some underlying efficiency concerns: a red-zone TD rate of 23% and third-down conversion rate…

  • Recap

    Kentucky: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Kentucky sits at 5–7 after a shutout loss to Louisville in Week 14, a 41–0 defeat that underscores the Wildcats' struggles down the stretch. The team's current GIE rating of 1.8 places them 66th nationally—a position that reflects…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Cutter Boley

GIE projects a 2.8 rating drop and a 11.0pp shift in playoff probability if Kentucky loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

29 score

  • Quarterback 1% (1/5)
  • Offensive line 55% (11/20) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 22% (12/32)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 51% (14/31)
  • Secondary 47% (11/20)
  • Special teams 12% (2/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.3 rating

33 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Kentucky incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Jordan CastellDB From Florida Florida 80
Shane CarrWR From Southern Utah Southern Utah 60
Jamarrion HarklessDL From Purdue Purdue 59
Tyler ThomasDE From South Alabama South Alabama 57
Dominic WisemanDT From South Alabama South Alabama 52
Ahmad BreauxDT From LSU LSU 41

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 42.5%
    83th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 22.6%
    95th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 28.1%
    16th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.0 yds/play
    74th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.