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Missouri

Tigers · SEC

GIE rank
#11
of 138 FBS
Rating
1723
2026 Week 11
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Eli Drinkwitz Year 7 with Missouri

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
8.4
2.4 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
7 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#17 (6–29)
Make playoff
33%
Win conference
6%

Path to glory

Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)

Missouri playoff probability by pivotal game result
Game Win Loss Swing
at Georgia on road · Nov 14 · +87pp 87% 0% +87pp
vs Texas at home · Nov 7 · +76pp 77% 0% +76pp
vs Kentucky at home · Nov 21 · +76pp 76% 0% +76pp

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 4 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Non-FBS Win, 54-14 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Kansas Big 12 Win, 38-21 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Troy Sun Belt Win, 27-17 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Mississippi State SEC Loss, 24-31 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Florida SEC Win, 45-17 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Texas A&M SEC Win, 27-6 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Ole Miss SEC Loss, 3-31 Final
Wk 8 Bye
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Arkansas SEC Win, 34-10 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Texas SEC Win probability: 39%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Georgia SEC Win probability: 13%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Kentucky SEC Win probability: 68%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Oklahoma SEC Win probability: 69%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Missouri: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Missouri sits at 25th overall after a dominant 45-17 win over Florida in Week 5, though the rating held flat week-to-week—no movement up or down. The Tigers are 4-1 and tracking toward 8.5 expected wins by season's end, which puts them…

  • Recap

    Missouri: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Missouri sits at No. 19 after dismantling Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54–14 in Week 1, though the rating hasn't budged since—a sign that GIE views the blowout as exactly what was expected. The Tigers' red-zone efficiency is a concern: they're…

  • Recap

    Missouri: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Missouri sits at No. 21 in GIE's ratings after a convincing 31–17 road win at Arkansas in Week 14. The Tigers' 8–5 record reflects a team that's found some consistency down the stretch, and that victory over a divisional opponent signals…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Beau Pribula

GIE projects a -5.2 rating drop and a -20.9pp shift in playoff probability if Missouri loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

37 score

  • Quarterback 18% (2/7)
  • Offensive line 53% (10/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 65% (14/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 39% (19/29)
  • Secondary 24% (7/18)
  • Special teams 1% (5/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.2 rating

30 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Missouri incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Cayden LeeWR From Ole Miss Ole Miss 116
Robert Woodyard Jr.LB From Auburn Auburn 108
Caleb Goodie Sr.WR From Cincinnati Cincinnati 88
Xai'Shaun EdwardsRB From Houston Christian Houston Christian 79
Kensley Louidor-FaustinS From Auburn Auburn 76
Mark HensleyDT From Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 69

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 42.6%
    84th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.8%
    39th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 36.6%
    53th — average
  • Late & close 4.7 yds/play
    37th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.