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Syracuse

Orange · ACC

GIE rank
#88
of 138 FBS
Rating
1497
2026 Week 11
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
5-7
12-game season

Head coach Fran Brown Year 3 with Syracuse

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
5.3
1.3 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 7
Final rank (90%)
#90 (69–106)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Syracuse's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs New Hampshire Non-FBS Win, 66-3 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs California ACC Loss, 18-21 Final
Wk 3 Sep 17 at Pittsburgh ACC Loss, 13-27 Final
Wk 4 Bye
Wk 5 Oct 3 at UConn FBS Independents Win, 42-41 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Virginia ACC Loss, 25-28 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Louisville ACC Loss, 26-34 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at North Carolina ACC Win, 31-30 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs SMU ACC Win, 30-27 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Clemson ACC Win probability: 35%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at NC State ACC Win probability: 37%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Boston College ACC Win probability: 38%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Notre Dame FBS Independents Win probability: 4%

Latest stories

  • Analysis

    Syracuse rises 63 ELO points this week

    Syracuse's Elo rating rose 63 points this week, the largest single-week climb in the dataset, following a 66–3 demolition of New Hampshire in week one. The shift pushes the Orange to 1399, up from a preseason projection of 1336.

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Rickie Collins

GIE projects a -8.1 rating drop and a -32.2pp shift in playoff probability if Syracuse loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

49 score

  • Quarterback 57% (3/6)
  • Offensive line 71% (17/24) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 22% (15/33)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 41% (14/32)
  • Secondary 72% (13/22)
  • Special teams 9% (3/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.1 rating

19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Syracuse incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Tunmise AdeleyeDL From UNLV UNLV 176
Noah MeyersTE From Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 140
Amari OdomQB From Kennesaw State Kennesaw State 122
Cole WeaverWR From Miami (OH) Miami (OH) 117
Nazir WardDB From Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 98
Jartavius FlounoyDL From Georgia State Georgia State 96

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 29.8%
    15th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 7.9%
    11th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 41.0%
    70th — strong
  • Late & close 8.2 yds/play
    96th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.